Hillary's Not Close to Being Finished
As I got used to last night's new developments in the run for president, it all of a sudden struck me that we're wasting our time in trying to figure out how to get Hillary out of the race. She's not coming out--she's in it for the long haul. There have certainly been opportunities before yesterday's primary, but if there was still a chance at the beginning of the day yesterday, it's gone now. Obama needed to prove to Hillary that he was going to overwhelm her through the rest of these contests, but he didn't do that.
Look at this from her perspective. When you take into consideration the fact that none of the superdelegates are locked in yet, she's still in striking distance from Obama. It's unlikely that she could make up the difference, but it's not yet impossible. What she thinks she's got going for her, obviously, is the fact that no matter how firmly superdelegates claim to be supporting either of these candidates, they can switch their votes at the slightest whim. All of Obama's superdelegates can become Hillary's superdelegates at any moment. No, I don't think that's particularly likely, either, but it's not me who needs to be convinced. And because each one of these superdelegates is in play until the Democratic convention, there's virtually nothing I can think of that could entice Hillary to step off the stage. In fact, when you think about it, a convention floor fight would do nothing but strengthen her position--probably not enough to help her wrest the nomination from Obama, but nothing ventured, nothing gained, after all. Unless someone is going to sit down and have a firm heart-to-heart with Hillary (and, offhand, I don't know who a likely candidate for such a task would be), we're nowhere close to wrapping all of this up.
posted by Doug @ 3:41 AM
5 comments
5 Comments:
I see three points at which Senator Clinton potentially drops out.
First, if she loses in Indiana and if she loses by a large enough margin in North Carolina, it's conceivable that she might be persuaded to drop out. I think this is relatively unlikely.
Second, after all of the contests are done on June 3, she may drop out -- particularly if enough superdelegates have publicly pledged to Senator Obama to give him the nomination.
Finally, she could take this all the way to the convention.
I heard a pundit the other day predict that she'll pull a Lieberman and make a third party tun if Senator Obama wins the nomination. I don't think she'd go that far, but she's continued to surprise me in terms of how far she'll go, so you never know.
I go back and forth from thinking I have her (and Bill) figured out to thinking that humans are unpredictable and we really don't know much about individuals' decision making. So, a few minutes ago, I was resigned to a fight at the convention, but now Jason's 1st two comments also seem reasonable (I am trying to ignore the third) and I have renewed hope she will go sooner than later.
I assume that she's in for the whole thing, because she'll never be able to run again after this.
I've said this before, but I still regard Hilary in 2008 as possibly traveling the same road Bob Dole did for the Republicans in 1996 -- savvy enough to get the nomination, but (woe to her party) unelectable. Talking to my friends, most of whom trend toward Democratic, I hear some of them pondering a vote for McCain if Hilary gets the nomination. And as Ralph Nader could tell you, it doesn't take a whole lot of people to swing an election.
All that being said, I'm also cynical enough to think that the election may well come down to the perceived state of the economy come November, rather than any sort of long-term thinking.
By remaining uncommitted, the 300 or so superdelegates left are in a sense giving her license to continue. Their implicit message is "you can still convince me." At least that's the one she hears. So long as they stay on the sidelines, she won't get out, no matter what happens in any of the remaining races. She's not the one that needs to be convinced (directly) to shut things down; it's the superdelegates that hold the keys. But, of course, cowards as most of them are, they would prefer that she let them off the hook. Not gonna happen. Whichever of them is for Barry needs to come on out and say so.
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