Talk Talk Talk Talk Talk Myself to Death: Here We Go

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Here We Go

The six weeks of inanity is finally coming to an end. Pennsylvania's voting today. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Democratic primaries, we've been building this up for so long that it can't possibly end up being anything but a disappointment. I suspect that the primary will have an effect on the dynamic of the race, but it's going to be very slow in unfolding. Nothing short of a big Obama win will at all slow Hillary down for the moment. We noted last week that Governor Ed Rendell has been lowering expectations, defining even a 4-percent victory by Hillary as a big win when it comes to Pennsylvania. Does that mean that if Obama barely comes out on top, that it's Hillary holding her own? Not that I'm a big-time prognosticator, but I'm expecting Hillary to win in mid-double digits. Without a dramatic win (and I mean really dramatic) by one side or the other, the delegate counts won't really shift--Obama still won't be able to put it away, so Hillary won't be absolutely ruled out. In fact, because superdelegates can change their announced or intended votes up until the time they actually cast their ballots, maybe there's no way she can be absolutely ruled out before the convention. The primary strategy of her campaign right now seems to be "You've got to be in it to win it." Is she hoping for an Obama meltdown that will leave her standing alone in the field? That seems to be her best chance for victory at this point.

Meanwhile, Obama is also lowering expectations for his chances in Pennsylvania. Either way, somebody's going to do better than expected. Let's promise to meet back here in a few hours to see who's up and who's down.


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