The Long Run

The excitement of the last week has been intoxicating, with the Iowa caucuses on Thursday and then the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. We've gone from the inevitability of Hillary to the Obama wave to Hillary's big comeback, all in just a few days. Where do we stand now? Who knows! But one thing that's easy to forget in the tsunami of political coverage is that, even front-loaded like they are this year, the primary season is fairly long. In all, there are 4,049 delegates up for grabs, which means that somebody has to nab 2,025 for a majority. Of the 4,049 delegates, 796 are so-called superdelegates, party members or elected officials who get to choose who they'll support. That leaves 3,253 delegates to be chosen through caucuses or primaries. So far, This year, Super Tuesday (February 5) will really earn that name, with 2,075 delegates up for grabs in 22 states. So far, Iowa and New Hampshire have awarded a grand total of 67 delegates: 25 to Obama, 24 to Hillary, and 18 to Edwards. Even adding in superdelegates who've pledged their support to a particular candidate (they're allowed to change their minds at any time), we're left with Hillary at 183 delegates, Obama at 78, Edwards at 52, Richardson at 19, and Kucinich at 1. By any measure, that's a long way from 2,025. Certainly momentum is important, but it's not everything. And as we've been seeing, momentum shifts and fluctuates. Obama had it over the weekend, but Hillary took it on Monday and (more importantly) Tuesday. After Iowa, Edwards was the only Democrat gaining momentum nationwide (though we'll have to see if that continues after New Hampshire). Because every state wanted to move its primary up far enough that there would still be a contest going on by the time it got to vote, we'll have a nominee earlier than we have in the past, but at this point, there's still a ways to go.