How Goes the Nuclear Compromise? [UPDATED]

The filibuster against Judge Janice Brown was set aside yesterday, so now that we’re coming up to the actual vote, this would be a good time to review the courageous filibuster compromise that kept the Senate from going nuclear.

What the Democrats got vs. what they gave away: A vote on the nuclear option was put off until Frist feels like pulling it out again. That seems to be the extent of Democratic gains. Theoretically, the seven Republicans have agreed to vote against the nuclear option if it comes down to it, but they reserved the right to change their minds. Two of the Republicans, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Mike DeWine of Ohio, wasted no time in declaring that they’d vote for the nuclear option if the Democrats filibustered any future judges under less than “extraordinary” circumstances. (And what would such "extraordinary" circumstances be? They'll let us know later.) Since the compromise, Graham in particular has received pressure in his home state, and he has even tried to get some protection by asserting that he and DeWine were actually doing Frist’s bidding in the negotiation. If the rest of the Republicans are in line, Frist only needs to gain two of the compromisers to get a tie, which would be broken with alacrity by Dick Cheney. So that’s what’s in the Democrats’ plus column. In the minus? Priscilla Owen was approved and has already been sworn in to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, and Janice Brown is expected to get her up-or-down vote today. (Graham earlier suggested that at least one nominee might lose an up-or-down vote, so there’s still hope that 1) he wasn’t just yanking our chain and 2) Brown is that iffy nominee.)

What the Republicans got vs. what they gave away: Democrats agreed to close down the filibusters that had been blocking W.’s handful of nominees. What did they give away? They gave up an immediate vote on the nuclear option (a vote that they were not assured to win, by the way). But given Frist’s insistence that he’s ready to pull the nuclear option back out if the mood strikes him, I’m not sure they sacrificed anything else.

As I’ve said before, I’ve been unexpectedly impressed with Harry Reid’s success as a tactician. Although he theoretically wasn’t a party to the compromise (if Frist could have had emissaries in the back room, Reid certainly could have, too), he came out in support of it awfully quickly. We haven’t seen the whole thing play out yet, so I’m still hoping he knew what he was doing in backing it.

UPDATE: In an almost straight party-line vote, the Senate confirmed Janice Brown for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Every single Republican, plus Dem Ben Nelson of Nebraska, voted for her, and every single Democrat (except Nelson) voted against. The Senate's single Independent, Jim Jeffords of Vermont, sat out the vote. While they were at it, senators set aside the filibuster against William Pryor (who sat on his hands during the Terri Schiavo case, which, I guess, makes him an "activist judge"), who should get his up-or-down vote on Thursday. If anybody wants to argue that this compromise was anything other than a sucker punch for Dems, they're welcome to step forward.