The Shifting Landscape

Be careful not to buy into the common wisdom. We're in the midst of one of the most dynamic presidential primary seasons we've seen in ages--in both parties--but everybody wants to keep declaring it over. Before the actual voting began, Hillary was considered inevitable and unstoppable. Why were any of the other candidates even bothering to get into the race. That all stopped, though, when Obama took the Iowa caucuses, and the question immediately shifted over to whether there was any use in her staying in the race. Her win in New Hampshire caught far too many people (including me, as I recall) by surprise. And then it wasn't long until she was inevitable again, at least until Obama took South Carolina--but can that be enough to really challenge Hillary? Well, it may or may not, but the question is far from settled. The latest development that "changed everything" was Edwards's surprise withdrawal from the race.

I'd believed Edwards when he said he was in for the long haul, and with the Democrats's proportional award of delegates in the upcoming primaries, even if he never won one, he could've continued amassing delegates that might've made him a factor in the convention. Why did he leave now? Was there something in Florida that let him know he was in a useless battle? All of the candidates had agreed not to campaign in the state, so what was there to be learned from his results, which weren't that different from what he'd been experiencing all along? Why not at least wait until after Super Tuesday? If his results from South Carolina were bad enough to push him out, why didn't he leave then? All of those are empty questions unless Edwards explains himself, but the immediate reactions caused by his pulling were quite interesting. There was a pulse through the blogosphere (the progressive blogosphere, anyway, although it wouldn't surprise me if it hit the conservative blogosphere, as well) that Hillary had as good as wrapped up the contest. I have to admit that the idea occurred to me, as well. But on further thought, I wondered why that was the only conclusion to reach? I'm not saying that all of Edwards's support was anti-Hillary, but a lot of it would've been. I'm not sure how much different the dynamic of the race was at the end of the day Wednesday than it was at the beginning of the day. We may learn a lot on Super Tuesday, but I think what we'll find is that Obama wins a bunch, Hillary wins a bunch, and although we'll actually be closer to a nominee, I'm not sure it'll be any more sure about who it's going to be.

I'd intended to take on the Republican campaign, as well, but tonight I suspect my time is better spent in bed. Maybe we'll take up the topic at a later time.