Another Day, Another Vote Total

So what did today's various contests tell us about the Republican and Democratic presidential races? Not a lot, but something. I was expecting Huckabee to win by a small margin in South Carolina, but he lost by a small margin, instead. While this isn't a knockout blow by any means, South Carolina did look pretty fertile for Huckabee's kind of campaign. For him to have any chance at all, he needs to prove that he's locked up the evangelicals, but The New York Times reported that he only got 40 percent of those voters--surprisingly, McCain got a quarter of them. Huckabee can probably stay in through Super Tuesday, only two-and-a-half weeks away at this point, but unless he gives us a real surprise there, he won't last much longer. If Huckabee has to prove his mettle among evangelicals, McCain, interestingly enough, needs to prove that he can get support among Republicans. He's doing better than he had been, however, drawing the same percentage of self-identified Republicans as Huckabee did. Is he winning his party over? Super Tuesday will give us a better idea, but I still say, "Don't count on it."

Disappointedly (for me, anyway), Fred Thompson came in a distant third. South Carolina was also going to be his moment to shine. His good-ol'-boy charm was going to win him converts in the South. Or not. This is his best showing so far, I believe (and no, it's too late--I'm not going to look it up), and if this is it, he's done before Super Tuesday. Rudy Giuliani, as I'm sure he's going to point out any minute now, fulfilled his own intentions by bringing in a full 2 percent of the vote. At this rate, no one will expect his return when he roars to victory in some primary when we least expect it. Of course, that's assuming that he actually roars to victory in some primary somewhere.

Over in Nevada, Mitt did very well, mostly due to the fact that he campaigned for it and most everyone else never even showed up. I'm sure he's happy to take it anyway. Even though he polled fourth in South Carolina, this win is enough to keep him in the mix. He's one three contests so far (although two of them featured very little campaigning from the rest of the field). Come to think of it, instead of remaining in the mix, the latest victory might bestow him with frontrunner status. It's either him or McCain.

Nevada also held Democratic caucuses, and Hillary was the big winner there. Or was she? Obama ended up closer than the various polls suggested that he would, so that's good news for him. We'll see if Super Tuesday does any sorting out there. Edwards ended up with 4 percent, which doesn't portend well. Nevada's set up is similar to Iowa's, and candidates have to clear 15 percent of the vote in a particular caucus to remain in the count. Edwards wasn't able to pull that off, so his disappointing numbers. Although he claims that he's in for the long haul, you've got to start wondering how much longer Edwards can maintain his campaign. He's still hanging in the running, and Super Tuesday will give us another chance to see how much staying power he's got.