Not the Land of Milk and Honey

Our pal Don at Article 19 linked to an article in The Hill in which Southern Baptist poo-bah Richard Land waxed eloquent on the Republican presidential field. Although being a Southern Baptist poo-bah should be enough reason these days to allow him entry to the newspaper of Washington insiders, but he's hawking a book. As head of the Southern Baptist Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission (and if you think there's something Orwellian about that name, you're not alone), Land has set himself up as a primary spokesman for Southern Baptists, and by extension, evangelical conservatives. I suspect he believes that he shapes opinion in that realm, as well, so if he's got something to say, there's no doubt that it will be influential.

He doesn't offer a lot of surprises, but he's got a couple. Giuliani doesn't have a chance, according to Land, but only partly because he's seen as too socially liberal. It's his private life, which includes three marriages, that will do him in among Christian conservatives. (Land mentions the same roadblock to Newt Gingrich, if he tries to enter the race.) In regard to McCain, I suspect that Land has it right. McCain can't have both the conservatives and the moderates. Conservatives are leery of McCain's socially moderate policies in the past, and moderates are nervous about his buddying up to Falwell and the religious right. Land says that McCain's maverick streak (such as it is) makes conservatives nervous--they want to know what they're voting for. I believe that McCain's run for the presidency last time and his knack for keeping his name in the news in the seven years since is what's making him the frontrunner. People know his name, and they recognize it in the context of a presidential contender--of course he's polling well twenty-one months before the election. As the actual primaries get closer, I suspect that he'll fade. Not the least of his problems is his age--he's already older than Ronald Reagan was when he took the oath of office. Reagan was 69, while McCain is already 70, and there are still a couple of years to go.

The surprise that I did find was Land's apparent openness to Mitt Romney. He claimed that evangelicals are ready to be convinced about Romney's conversion to conservative values. Conversion is what evangelicals do, after all. But I'm not quite sure that Land's insistence that Romney's Mormon religion is not a "deal-killer" quite rings true. I guess it's always possible that people can become more open-minded, but many evangelical Protestants don't believe that Mormons are actually Christian. No matter what they claim, I firmly believe that they won't pull the lever for anyone who's not Christian in their eyes. If evangelical leaders are assuring Romney differently, then they're lying to him.

I suspect that the openness to Romney is actually a dodge to build him up as a viable opponent to McCain. Once McCain is weakened, evangelicals are hoping that there will be room for one of their own to step into the fray. And Land is quick to offer either Sam Brownback or Mike Huckabee as possibilities.

Both men are considered long-shots at this early stage of the game, but Land said impressive fundraising or gains in the polls could open a door to either candidate through which social conservatives might run.

"They don't have to convince other social conservatives they're one of them," Land said. "They just have to convince other social conservatives they can win."

Land goes on to say he believes Huckabee in particular "could catch fire."

Watch out, Mitt Romney. One of these days, that welcoming pat on the back by evangelicals might well be accompanied by a knife.