The Ever-Shrinking George W. Bush

The one subject we can't stop talking about this week is the Prez's plan to "surge" in Iraq and escalate the conflict. And sure enough, that's what Frank Rich writes about in this week's column. Before getting started, though, he sets the scene with his title: "He's in the Bunker Now." And apparently, the Prez is hiding from reality there. That single image conveys both his isolation and his desperation. Much of the column today echoes with the diminished power of George W. Bush.

President Bush always had one asset he could fall back on: the self-confidence of a born salesman. Like Harold Hill in "The Music Man," he knew how to roll out a new product, however deceptive or useless, with conviction and stagecraft. What the world saw on Wednesday night was a defeated Willy Loman who looked as broken as his war. His flop sweat was palpable even if you turned down the sound to deflect despair-inducing phrases like "Prime Minister Maliki has pledged ..." and “Secretary Rice will leave for the region. ..."

Mr. Bush seemed to know his product was snake oil, and his White House handlers did too. In the past, they made a fetish of situating their star in telegenic settings, from aircraft carriers to Ellis Island. Or they placed him against Orwellian backdrops shrieking "Plan for Victory." But this time even the audio stuttered, as if in solidarity with Baghdad’s continuing electricity blackout, and the Oval Office was ditched, lest it summon up memories of all those past presidential sightings of light at the end of the Iraqi tunnel. Mr. Bush was banished to the White House library, where the backdrop was acres of books, to signify the studiousness of his rethinking of the "way forward."

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"Victory" also received short shrift, downsized by the president to the paltry goal of getting "closer to success." The "benchmarks" he cited were so vague that they'd be a disgrace to No Child Left Behind. And no wonder: in November, Mr. Bush couldn't even get our devoted ally, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, to show up for dinner at their summit in Amman, let alone induce him to root out Shiite militias. The most muscle the former Mr. Bring-'Em-On could muster in Wednesday's speech was this: "If the Iraqi government does not follow through on its promises, it will lose the support of the American people." Since that support vanished long ago, it's hard to imagine an emptier threat or a more naked confession of American impotence, all the more pathetic in a speech rattling sabers against Syria and Iran.

Like a lot of people these days, Rich compares the current Bush presidency with the latter days of the Nixon administration. The deterioration, both personal and political, experienced by Nixon is echoed in our current situation. Unfortunately, I'm not sure I see the same quick resolution.

I have long felt that it will be up to Mr. Bush's own party to ring down the curtain on his failed policy, and after the 2006 midterms, that is more true than ever. The lame-duck president, having lost both houses of Congress and at least one war (Afghanistan awaits), has nothing left to lose. That is far from true of his party.

Even conservatives like Sam Brownback of Kansas and Norm Coleman of Minnesota started backing away from Iraq last week. Mr. Brownback is running for president in 2008, and Mr. Coleman faces a tough re-election fight. But Republicans not in direct electoral jeopardy (George Voinovich of Ohio, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska) are also starting to waver. It's another Vietnam-Watergate era flashback. It wasn't Democrats or the press that forced Richard Nixon's abdication in 1974; it was dwindling Republican support. Though he had vowed to fight his way through a Senate trial, Nixon folded once he lost the patriarchal leader of his party’s right wing.

That leader was Barry Goldwater, who had been one of Nixon's most loyal and aggressive defenders until he finally realized he’d been lied to once too often. If John McCain won't play the role his Arizona predecessor once did, we must hope that John Warner or some patriot like him will, for the good of the country, answer the call of conscience. A dangerous president must be saved from himself, so that the American kids he's about to hurl into the hell of Baghdad can be saved along with him.

What's distressing about calling on the spirit of Barry Goldwater is that he has no obvious successor in the contemporary Republican party. Rich suggests John Warner, but although he may have the integrity to confront the Prez with the reality of his situation, he doesn't have the stature necessary to force Bush to listen. Who would Bush pay attention to? Almost certainly not his father, or anyone from that earlier administration. We already had James Baker step forward with something resembling a more responsible policy, and he was almost utterly ignored. I can think of no one in the Senate who could pull it off. When we get to elder statesmen, who's left? I suppose I could imagine Bush taking Henry Kissinger's advice into account, but by all reports, he's encouraging the Prez to do precisely what he's doing now. When it comes down to it, the most encouraging recommendation I can make is that we all hold on very tightly for another two years.

Thanks go this week to The Unknown Candidate for the free and unfettered view of Frank Rich.