Talk Talk Talk Talk Talk Myself to Death: Between the Lines of the "Surge"

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Between the Lines of the "Surge"

No real surprises tonight, but there may be a couple of things that push the boundaries of where they've been before. As expected, the Prez escalated the conflict in Iraq by promising more troops into Iraq to . . . well, do pretty much what they've been doing so far, clearing out neighborhoods and trying to keep the "bad guys" from coming back in. So what was new? He sort of accepted responsibility for what's gone wrong in the operation so far: "Where mistakes have been made, the responsibility rests with me." Of course, he didn't necessarily say mistakes were made, and if they were, he's certainly not giving any indication of what they might have been. But this is the closest he's come yet to saying he did anything wrong, so I guess we should be happy with what we can get.

The other thing that concerns me to some extent is a very vague statement he made about Iran and Syria.

These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq.

He didn't specify where we'd seek out and destroy these networks--will we enter Iran and attack there if we feel it necessary? Was this the Prez marking his territory to invade Iran on the timetable of his choosing? That would explain the otherwise odd decision of putting an admiral in charge of two land wars in the Middle East and Asia. The new CENTCOM commander doesn't seem a shoo-in for that, but if you need somebody to lead an air-and-sea attack against Iran, he's your guy. The Prez also mentioned that he's deploying more Patriot missile systems into the area. Just in case they're needed.

The most ridiculous notion in the new "surge" plan is this:

The Iraqi government will appoint a military commander and two deputy commanders for their capital. The Iraqi government will deploy Iraqi Army and National Police brigades across Baghdad's nine districts.

When these forces are fully deployed, there will be 18 Iraqi Army and National Police brigades committed to this effort, along with local police. These Iraqi forces will operate from local police stations; conducting patrols, setting up checkpoints, and going door- to-door to gain the trust of Baghdad residents.

That's right. This whole plan depends on the Iraqis stepping up. Isn't that what we've been waiting for since the beginning of this whole mess? Why do we think it'll work at this point? Well, the Prez offered this:

Prime Minister Maliki has pledged that political or sectarian interference will not be tolerated.

There you go: because Maliki promised that it would. But, and I'm just playing the devil's advocate here for a moment, what happens if it doesn't work? What kind of consequences is the Prez willing to put on the table?

I have made it clear to the prime minister and Iraq's other leaders that America's commitment is not open-ended. If the Iraqi government does not follow through on its promises, it will lose the support of the American people. And it will lose the support of the Iraqi people.

You know what? I don't see how that can possibly function as an effective threat. Maybe it's just me, but I think it's already lost the support of the American people. And from the sound of things, it may no longer have the Iraqi people backing it, either.

Aside from the veiled threats, is this plan a nonstarter? Democrats have been making noise about offering opposition, but will they finally be ready to step up?

3 Comments:

At 7:25 AM, January 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think he got the term 'Surge' from the energy drink he sucks down during his episodes at the weight pile. We could just as easily be discussing Operation Red Bull.

 
At 9:11 AM, January 11, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My ideal plan would have been for President Bush to quietly take Maliki aside and say "Look, we're done here. You're going to go on Iraqi TV and announce that all of the remaining problems in Iraq are internal problems, and that there is accordingly no longer a role for the United States. You're going to thank us for overthrowing Saddam, and for everything we've done, and then you're going to politely ask us to leave." And then we leave.

Bush's plan is surprisingly similar, except it doesn't include Maliki as an accomplice and it takes until November. But we've basically set Maliki up to fail. He's got to come up with a division for every brigade we send over? He's got to reform de-Baathification legislation and come up with an oil-revenue sharing plan? These are pie-in-the-sky plans. He might as well say that Maliki is going to ride through Baghdad on the back of a unicorn.

These plans are going to fail because they are designed to fail. And when they do, President Bush can point to is plan, point to Maliki, and say "Gosh, we had a great plan but the Iraqis blew it." This is a plan to set up a scapegoat -- nothing more.

 
At 12:07 PM, January 16, 2007, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jason, you may be right. But it's tragically unfortunate for the people who will have to die to provide the opportunity for the scapegoat. It makes me sick to my stomach to think of people dying so the President can make a political point and get himself out of a mess.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home