Whither Lieberman?

In comments to a previous post, Mike A opined that if Joe Lieberman returns to the Senate (which seems unfortunately likely at the moment), it won't be as a Democrat. While it's true that he seems intent on burning whatever bridges are in reach, I'm not so sure that he's going to turn his back on his party. No, of course I don't say that because I believe he has any sort of loyalty to his party. He's been stabbing them in the back since before he was running in this year's primary, so clearly party loyalty has no hold on him whatsoever. No, the reason I think he'll remain in the party is that he gains nothing by leaving, and he potentially loses a lot if he does. There's little reason to expect that Lieberman will be stripped of his seniority if he retains his seat. If the Democratic Senate leadership was going to do that, they should've done it when he left the party after the primary in the first place. If the Democrats take control of the Senate, he'd be stupid to leave in order to join the minority party. If the Republicans retain control, they have no need for him. He could caucus with their side, but he'll have no seniority whatsoever.

The only scenario in which it makes any sense whatsoever for Lieberman to make the leap is if Dems win the six seats they need to take control. They now have 44 seats, but a win of six more really only gives them a net gain of five, because Lieberman would officially count as an independent (Bernie Sanders is expected to win Jim Jeffords's Vermont seat and will keep it independent), so the Senate would officially be divided 49/49/2. Sanders will caucus with the Dems, so if Lieberman jumps ship, he would leave the Senate in a tie (which would be broken by Dick Cheney, so the Senate would be functionally be Republican controlled). Joe might get a couple of promises from the Republicans to make such a move, but he'd never have any long-term influence the party, and as soon as the Republicans could jettison him, they would. Unless 2008 left the Senate in the same precarious state (and a tie would go to whichever party wins the White House), neither party would need him, and he'd have even fewer friends than he does now.

Lieberman has the most leverage if he threatens to leave the Democrats, and he seems like a smart enough man to realize that. Of course, he also seems like a spiteful enough man that he might walk out on the Democrats just to piss them off, but if he does, he won't find the Republican party terribly welcoming. Now that I think about it, though, being spurned by both parties would serve him right, so I can't say I'd be disappointed if that's how everything turns out.