Joe Lieberman: Conquering Hero

Joe Lieberman returned to the Senate on Tuesday. Were the walls themselves quivering with suspense as to how he'd be received? After all, many of his colleagues had campaigned for his opponent, Democratic nominee Ned Lamont. Lieberman himself had jokingly (?) implied to Don Imus that he'd consider hiding a gun in the bathroom the next time he had lunch with his fellow Connecticut Democratic senator, Christopher Dodd. Even after the election and his promise to caucus with the Democrats, Joe told Tim Russert that he wouldn't rule out defecting to the Republicans. So how would it go?

Have no fear. According to CNN (via TPM Cafe Election Central), Democrats not only met him with open arms, they gave him a standing ovation. It's hardly a surprise, though. It's been suggested many times that the Senate is just a big club. Lieberman is a long-time member who was confronted with a challenge, namely being refused his party's nomination by his own constituents, but he overcame that challenge, went around Connecticut Democrats, and returned to the Senate on his own terms. What part of that would not endear him to his colleagues?

And it's hardly a surprise that he'd make noises about possibly bolting the party. I predicted as much last week. He doesn't have leverage if he doesn't threaten to caucus with the Republicans every now and again. But he loses that leverage the minute he turns to the dark side. He might be able to bargain some concessions from the Repubs in exchange for his vote, but he'll lose any continuing influence, and that's ultimately what he wants. He paid a high price to hold on to his seat, and he's not going to take steps to undermine the power he currently has.

Kos, on the other hand, says he expects Lieberman to join the Republicans.

It's what his voters want, it's what his financiers want, it's what his strategists want. You get elected with Republican voters, money and advice, you sort of end up indebted to the other side.

Maybe so, but I don't think Lieberman, even with all the support he's given to the Bush administration, ever implied that he was a stealth Republican. Repubs may have been supporting him, but they did that without any public statement from the candidate that he would betray the Democratic power structure in the Senate.

Kos also suggests the Lieberman's influence lasts only until the 2008 election, and that sounds right to me. Lieberman only has power when it's a 50/50 Senate. Whatever happens (and Kos handicaps major Democratic gains), neither side will need Joe the next time around. Enjoy your influence while you can, Joe!