SURPRISE!

What is it with this administration and its surprise diplomatic visits? The Prez has dropped in to Baghdad without calling ahead twice so far. Rumsfeld and Condie showed up there together. And this week, Condie went to the Middle East, presumably to confer with Jerusalem but, without any warning at all, there she was--all of a sudden--in Beirut!

I don't know if anybody out there's impressed by this--I assume the Bushies are at the very least impressing themselves if no one else--but the whole thing smacks to me of their fear of having to face down their own foreign policy. Are all these places so dangerous that the Bushies aren't safe if anyone has advance knowledge of their presence? Now that I put it that way, probably so. I'm not sure how that offers any reassurance to the people--either residents or those stationed there--who can't arrive unannounced and leave again quickly thereafter. Shouldn't we be alarmed by all this rather than cheering on our fearless leaders?

The Washington Post took a look at this phenomenon today, and they saw it as a magic trick that was starting to get old. They interview a couple of people who should know a thing or two about surprises.

What makes for a good surprise? It is a matter of expectations. A good surprise should be fresh, says Jack White, a magician in San Diego who does public relations for the International Brotherhood of Magicians. Pull a rabbit from a hat once and the audience will love it. Pull a rabbit from a hat again, and the audience knows what to look for.

Yes, you can't do the same trick too many times without it going stale. And there's this, too:

"You always try to make sure a good twist, especially in the fourth act of a show like ours, is as inevitable as it is surprising," says Nicholas Wootton, executive producer of "Law & Order." "You've sort of prepared the viewer throughout the episode without necessarily having them know they're being prepared for it."

Maybe the Bushies just aren't providing us with enough set up. The Condi surprise visit just doesn't have the impact of the first Bush one. But then again, maybe the Post provides another reason that we're losing interest, as well.

A crafter of a good surprise is smarter than his audience.

Ah. Maybe that's the problem.