Republican Turbulence

Dan Balz has a news analysis in Thursday's Washington Post looking at the convergence of all bad things that are currently tormenting the Republican party.

On almost every front, Republicans see trouble. Bush is at the low point of his presidency, with Iraq, hurricane relief, rising gasoline prices and another Supreme Court vacancy all problems to be solved. Congressional Republicans have seen their approval ratings slide throughout the spring and summer; a Washington Post-ABC News poll in August found that just 37 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is doing its job, the lowest rating in eight years.

On the ethics front, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) is under investigation for selling stock in his family's medical business just before the price fell sharply. The probe of well-connected lobbyist Jack Abramoff, a former close associate of DeLay, threatens to create even more troubles for Republicans. Finally, the special counsel investigation into whether White House senior adviser Karl Rove or others in the administration broke the law by leaking the name of the CIA's Valerie Plame is nearing a conclusion.

Yes, it's bad, and it could be getting worse. All the facts are yet to be in on any of these developing situations, so all bets are off. Just this afternoon a new bombshell broke on the Plame affair. After a phone discussion with Dick Cheney's chief of staff, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby (who claims that he freed her from any commitment of confidentiality over a year ago), Judith Miller was freed from jail and has agreed to testify to the grand jury. I guess the special counsel investigation is even closer to concluding than it was when Balz initially wrote that. We'll keep an eye out for any new developments as the day progresses.

But does any of this mean anything for the Democrats? Balz addresses that little issue, too.

For Democrats, there were many cautionary notes yesterday, despite their obvious glee over DeLay's indictment. On a practical level, the House is now so gerrymandered by redistricting that far fewer districts are genuinely competitive, making the Democrats' task of scoring big gains there more difficult. Nor is there much evidence yet that the voters see Democrats as an attractive alternative, no matter how sour they may be about the Republicans.

The Democrats have so faded away not just as an opposition party but even as a viable alternative, that they're not in the position to capitalize on all this that they should be. They have to rebuild themselves and slowly establish an identity. They're in a better position than the Repubs to be sure, but they've got a lot more work in front of them than they may be willing to recognize.