A New Supreme

So W is going on TV tonight (preempting House, Big Brother 6, and I Want to Be a Hilton--except for FOX, I don’t guess anybody'll be complaining about losing the ratings) to announce his new pick for the Supreme Court. Speculation is strong that it'll be Edith Clement of the 5th circuit, but nobody's promising a confirmation of the name before W faces the cameras tonight.

There's some logic to the idea that making the nomination now, earlier than most expected, is a way to get Rove and the Plame affair off the front pages. In fact, Atrios quotes CNN to the effect that it's already worked: "Speaking of the Karl Rove matter, of course, that is news that is considered at the moment, so yesterday. We've moved on." But at the same time, Clement seems to be a boring enough nominee that such a strategy might not work. In a Slate rundown on potential nominees a couple of weeks back, here's all they've got to say about her: "Clement doesn't provide much ammunition for opposition groups, but perhaps not much for conservatives to get excited about either. She hasn't written anything notable off the bench (or at least nothing that's come to light yet), and most of her judicial decisions have been in relatively routine and uncontroversial cases."

To get Rove off the front page, they need a controversy, and Clement doesn't seem like a good choice to pick a fight with Dems. But could the strategy be even more daring? Maybe the White House is looking to create a distraction by picking a fight with its base. An AP story earlier today has this to say about Clement: "She has stated that the Supreme Court 'has clearly held that the right to privacy guaranteed by the Constitution includes the right to have an abortion' and that 'the law is settled in that regard.'" A fight amongst the right would certainly get the attention of the liberal media, and it might even stir up some excitement among the lefty blogosphere, distracting it from the much more perilous Rove grand jury shenanigans. W might take some heat as well, but he can pull the nomination later and mend any fences by naming the hardcore nominee we've all been expecting all along. If he is willing to draw fire to change the subject, that would be an indication of how desperate life is in the White House these days.

Of course, his televised address to the nation could come and go leaving behind another name for nomination altogether. If that turns out to be the case, then nevermind. But in the meantime, speculation is so much more fun than cold, hard facts.