Talk Talk Talk Talk Talk Myself to Death: Another Primary, Another Obama Win

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Another Primary, Another Obama Win

According to CNN, Obama has (unsurprisingly) won the Mississippi primary. He's making up six delegates on Hillary's win last week (unless he's making up nine, as CNN says on this page, but, it's too bad he's not doing it in a state that actually matters. As for superdelegates, everybody has a different count, but CNN also says that, right now, Obama is only 32 behind Hillary in pledged superdelegates. That's not very many. Most people have suggested that the superdelegates should stay out of the contest so we can see how the remaining voters are going to go before they step in and decide the contest. Over at TAPPED, The American Prospect blog, Mori Dinauer (via Kevin Drum) asks, "What are they waiting for?" Certainly, some superdelegates are waiting for the right offer--probably from the candidate they already intend to endorse--before they commit. Others don't want to go out on a limb and are waiting for the other superdelegates to choose so they can be sure to get on the winning bandwagon. But if they're waiting to see how the elected delegates play out, it sure doesn't look like there are any surprises in the offing. Obama has a lead in delegates from the various contests so far, and even based on Jonathan Alter's very generous results in Hillary's favor for future contests (which has already proven too rosy, as Hillary didn't take Obama 53-47 in Wyoming or 52-48 today in Mississippi), there's no way Hillary can catch up. So no matter what, barring an airplane going down somewhere or something, when all the votes are counted, Obama will have the most popularly elected delegates. The only question left is what will be the margin of victory. If superdelegates want to follow the popular vote, they know where it'll be. If they want to vote specifically for Obama or Hillary no matter what the popular vote is, there's no reason not to commit now.

Of course, maybe there is a reason. It's common wisdom that Hillary is the candidate most connected with the Democratic party structure. Maybe she and Bill are even more powerful than we realize (and I, at least, already suspect that they're pretty darn powerful). Is it possible that no one is in a hurry to squeeze Hillary out of the race until she's ready to go? Maybe nobody wants to be the one who gives her the bad news that it's over. The uncommitted superdelegates may be just as happy to continue to enable her campaign for the time being.


At 7:02 PM, March 12, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Clinton story: through a contact at my day job, I have a nodding acquaintance with a fellow who travels in some pretty lofty social circles. Back in the 90s, he was invited to dinner at the Clinton White House. Not a huge state dinner, but a more intimate affair with a few dozen people. He told me that after dinner, everyone went to some library or other for brandy and cigars and suchlike, and they had an opportunity to actually speak with Bill one on one. He described it something like this: "The thing that struck me was how plugged in Clinton was. On any topic that came up, he was completely informed with all the up-to-date information and could talk about any subject in a completely informed and articulate manner. That's something that doesn't come across about him in the media and I think he ought to work harder to bring that side out him to the public. I voted Republican but I couldn't help but be impressed with the guy."


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