We're Entering a News-Free Zone

Well, we've made it to the weekend before Christmas. I'm not sure whether there's an actual law to this effect or whether this is just the way things go, but unless there's some sort of emergency like an unexpected tsunami or something, hard news has pretty much ended for the year. We've moved on to the fluff that no one remembers and no one cares about. Does that mean that nothing important will happen in the world? No, of course not. Lots of important things will happen, the people of the United States just won't pay attention to them. This could result in odd things this year since we're less than two weeks away from the Iowa Caucuses and we're just about two and a half weeks before the New Hampshire primary. The caucuses are being held on January 3. Simple math tells us that's only two days after New Year's Day, and probably before anyone starts paying attention to current events again. January 8, the date of the first in the nation New Hampshire primary, is a bit farther out, so some people may have started paying attention over the first weekend of the new year, but many people still will be regaining their sea legs when it comes to news. Does that mean that the caucuses (and the primary to a lesser extent) will just reflect what's going on now? Are the candidates locked in to their current positions? Unfortunately, it's hard to say what their "current position" is, because that can change from poll to poll and depending on the time of day, whether the sun is shining or not, and how the wind's blowing in Iraq. But regardless of precisely where the various candidates stand, it will be very difficult for campaigning to have much influence in changing that position. We'll get lots of spin from the campaigns (such as this, trying to set up Joe Biden's Mo-Joe as 2008's answer to Joementum). But we're really in uncharted territory here. These elections have never been this close to the holidays, so there's no telling how much effect they'll have. The last time around, the Iowa Caucuses were held on January 19, and the New Hampshire primary was held on January 28. That's enough time for life to get back to normal and people to start focusing in. This year, we might as well start the polling on Boxing Day for the amount that people will be paying attention. Maybe the good people of Iowa and New Hampshire will take their duties more seriously and keep their focus during the holidays, but like New Year's resolutions, people intend to do much more than they actually pull off.