The Nobel

All those predictions about Al Gore being the odds-on favorite to take home this year's Nobel Peace Prize seemed completely off base to me. The Nobel Committee is famous for being inscrutable, in going left when everyone expects them to go right. As soon as you think you know where they're going, they pull a quick left turn and end up somewhere else altogether. So much for my intuition. I believe that he's the first former Saturday Night Live host to win the prize (unless Chevy Chase snagged one when I wasn't paying attention).

Unsurprisingly, Gore said that he hoped the award would put a stronger focus on global warming. It'll probably do that to some extent, but the main topic of conversation in this country has been how this will force Gore into the presidential race or, if it doesn't, what effect it will have on those who are already in the race. A couple of them have already weighed in. Edwards congratulated the former vice president and took the opportunity to criticize the White House: "[Gore's] leadership stands in stunning contrast to the failure of the current administration to pursue policies that would reduce the harm of global warming." John McCain stated flatly that the Nobel Committee should've given the prize to someone else. The White House didn't seem to be widely impressed. "Of course, [Bush is] happy for Vice President Gore, happy for the International Panel on Climate Change scientists, who also shared the peace prize. Obviously it's an important recognition, and we're sure the vice president is thrilled." Now, there's a heartfelt congratulation. Privately, one unnamed administration official was even more blunt, telling The Washington Post that "the Nobel Prize is nice, but the presidency is still better. 'We're happy for him,' the aide said, 'but suspect he'd trade places before we would.'" That's just in case you'd forgotten that it's all about George.

The Draft Gore campaign has used the opportunity to offer fresh encouragement for the vice president to enter the race, but my sense is that he won't. (Take a look at the beginning of this post for how much to trust my predictions.) He should know that the press will treat him as a polarizing figure if he enters the race, and if his last election is any indication, a new campaign would never have the chance to focus on real issues, instead being forced to put out the silly fires his opponents (and the media itself) will keep setting for him. For the time being, anyway, he can probably best address the fray by staying above it.